Al Qaeda, ISIS cooperate in Lebanon, but that’s just a temporary tactic
ISIS and al Qaeda may be fighting each other, as well as
the Syrian regime, in Syria, but just across the border in Lebanon they
are collaborating for a common cause.
The two terrorist organizations
broke ties in Syria and began fighting each other last year, when al
Qaeda dissociated itself from the Islamic State group. But they share
Sunni Islam, and that has helped push them into a relationship that,
while not a formal alliance, is a joining of forces in the face of a
common enemy, the Shiite Hezbollah.
The de facto truce in Lebanon’s mountainous border region
around Qalamoun has been in effect since the summer between the Islamic
State group, or ISIS, and al Qaeda’s Syrian branch, Jabhat al-Nusra, or
JAN, which commands a much bigger following in Lebanon.
Their alignment, however, may be short-lived, as ISIS prepares to take more land.
“ISIS and JAN may combine their efforts in Qalamoun and
Lebanon, a break from their strategic norms,” according to a study from
the Institute for the Study of War.
“This alignment may dissipate quickly, however, if ISIS uses Qalamoun
as a launch point to co-opt gains made by JAN and rebels and expand
ISIS’ control.”
When ISIS declared its so-called caliphate in June, it also
announced it would expand across the region into several other
countries, including Lebanon. Since then, the group had made no official
statements about Lebanon, until earlier this week, when a report
circulated that ISIS was preparing to declare an “emirate” there. But an
actual “Islamic State of Lebanon” is unlikely to happen anytime soon,
experts said, without ISIS first gaining the allegiance of Jabhat
al-Nusra and other, smaller Sunni brigades affiliated with al Qaeda.
Since January there has been an uptick in jihadi “movements
on the border in the Qalamoun area, with a possible offensive to be
made soon against Hezbollah points,” said Joseph Bahout,
a visiting scholar in Carnegie’s Middle East Program who focuses on
Lebanon and Syria. “We have information that concentrations are
increasing on the border.”
Lebanon has long been a host country
for jihadist groups operating in Syria, thanks to a border vulnerable
to infiltration. Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah got involved in the
Syrian civil war in 2013, supporting the regime of president Bashar
Assad, whose Alawite branch of Islam is an offshoot of Shiism. In the
early stages of the war, Qalamoun and Arsal were also hotspots for Free
Syrian Army soldiers fighting the regime. But soon, Jabhat al-Nusra
emerged as the dominant Sunni group in the area.
It also has a strong ally in Lebanon whose existence
predates the Syrian civil war: the Abdallah Azzam Brigade, which claimed
responsibility for many of the recent terror attacks in the country and
has declared its loyalty to al Qaeda.
ISIS could not infiltrate Lebanon without their help.
“Lebanese jihadi reality is much more close to Nusra than to ISIS,”
Bahout said.
Still, last month there were more than a thousand ISIS
fighters in the country and nearly 700 of those were new allegiances,
Major General Abbas Ibrahim, head of Lebanon's Directorate of General
Security (DGS) told Reuters.
The group has been drawing new recruits from Lebanon’s marginalized
Sunni population, from fighters returning from Syria and even some
smaller former Free Syrian Army brigades in Syria’s Homs province,
according to Now Lebanon.
In some ISIS-heavy areas, the militant group has even begun
paying salaries to fighters, according to Radwan Mortada, a reporter
for Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar. There have also been multiple reports
of attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanese Army checkpoints, and violence
against civilians who do not follow ISIS’ strict laws.
There has been an “overall increase in ISIS’ activity in
Qalamoun, where ISIS has maintained a small presence for years,”
according to the ISW report.
“Reports in February 2015 of an ISIS Shariah court and checkpoints in
the surrounding countryside indicate that ISIS intends to establish
political control.”
So far, it has not succeeded.
In December, ISIS caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi reportedly
sent a three-person delegation including the group’s “emir,” or leader,
in Lebanon -- thought to be Sheik Abu Abdulah al-Maqdisi -- to demand
allegiance from JAN “emir” Abu Malek al-Talli. Al-Talli refused, according to Radwan Mortada, a reporter for Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar.
However, even if ISIS succeeds in eliminating Jabhat
al-Nusra in Lebanon by forcing members to pledge allegiance to
al-Baghdadi, it would still face a powerful, well-organized fighting
force: Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, which the U.S. calls a terrorist organization,
is now working with the Lebanese Armed Forces to push back Sunni jihadi
militants. Last year it even began arming different religious sects
around the country, trying to rally support from groups that used to be
opposers, International Business Times reported.
The international community is also sending aid to the
Lebanese Army. Earlier this week, the U.S agreed to provide military
aid, including six Super Cobra attack helicopters; on Tuesday, Jordan reportedly gave Lebanon a "military gift" of “armored personnel and artillery carriers.”
For now, the threat those weapons are meant to counter --
ISIS -- isn’t a military menace. “I would still say that Nusra is much
more present in the Lebanese landscape than ISIS,” Bahout said. “Is it
changing? Yes probably, with time.
But I’m not sure that ISIS is in
[any] capacity today to really seize parts of Lebanon and proclaim
something sustainable.” But the stage may soon be set for a conflict
between ISIS and other jihadi factions: “[They] are anticipating that
moment,” Bahouit said, “and preparing for what could be a decisive
battle on the border.”
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