The prospects of a new Iraqi Sunni “awakening” to
combat the Islamic State (IS) are being stifled by the terrorist group’s brutal
and effective intelligence operation, according to Ali Mamouri.
Mamouri writes from Iraq: "The Islamic State differs
from its predecessors and similar groups by running a powerful intelligence
apparatus that is strong and has plenty of security experience acquired by
intelligence officers from the previous regime.
The IS intelligence apparatus
carries out various types of operations, similar to other intelligence
apparatuses around the world. One of its most important operations is to monitor
and identify its opponents, to eliminate them immediately and to avoid the
possibility of the Iraqi government, and other local and regional opposing
parties, to infiltrate its intelligence apparatus, or a military opposition to
emerge on its territory.”
IS may be learning and adapting based on the
experience of its predecessor, al-Qaeda in Iraq, which lost ground to an
alliance between US military forces and Iraqi Sunni tribes — also known as the
Awakening movement — during the US troop "surge" in Iraq in 2007.
Mamouri writes: “The terror prevailing over Mosul has
led an enormous number of residents to flee and take refuge in Shiite-dominated western regions. Al-Monitor
witnessed long lines of refugees at the entrance to the city of Karbala, waiting
for security clearance to enter the city. These procedures can take days due to
the large number of refugees and the lack of facilities to receive them.”
Syria’s Alawite pulse
An Al-Monitor correspondent in Syria reports that Alawite
residents are seeking a new accountability from the Syrian government in its
conduct of the war.
“In Syria, both pro- and anti-regime citizens are
equally devastated by the war. We can say that the Alawites’ protests against
the regime mainly stem from its mismanagement of the war. Others' protests
center on demands stirred by the price increases and economic deterioration. The
regime has managed until now to control these protests and avoid their
escalation, as the photos of Assad and slogans supporting him in the streets of
Latakia and Tartus show.
“In Latakia, life
seems normal in the markets and on the roads, except for the presence of dozens
of armed men affiliated with the army and the National Defense Forces. … The
pro-regime militants in the
city streets, especially at the entrance of the mostly Sunni neighborhoods,
which have already witnessed clashes and protests, are intimidating. Sand
barricades can still be seen at the entrances of the streets leading to the
neighborhoods of Al Ramel al-Janoubi, Qnaines and al-Sakantouri. The regime,
with the support of its advocates, is still tightening the noose on the city. …
The pro-regime citizens in Tartus also seem angry. Everyone in the city is
talking about the fuel price hike and the subsequent increase in the prices of
products, while the minimum wage is still the same.”
Syrian army advances
Khaled Attalah reports that the Syrian army’s victory over
al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra and Hazm Movement forces in Murak, a town in the
Hama countryside, may be a prelude to a decisive battle for Aleppo.
Attalah reports from Murak: “The government forces’
control over Murak, 30 kilometers (19 miles) north of Hama, is part of Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad's strategy to slowly advance within geographically
overlapping regions.
It is an expansion of previous victories, accomplished
after the recent advance in Aleppo’s countryside and control over Halfaya, a town 25 kilometers (15.5 miles)
northwest of Hama. This opens the door for new clashes with opposition fighters
in the north, especially since the countryside outside the cities represents one
continuous line in the battles.”
A Syrian government victory in Aleppo would come at
the expense of the Western-backed moderate opposition forces, which are barely
hanging on despite a boost in support since the US-led coalition began
operations against IS.
“It seems that the Syrian army was able to open new
fronts that it was not capable of reaching before. If it achieves its objective
of reaching Aleppo’s countryside and opening supply lines to the north, the
opposition would be in big trouble, with the Islamic State on the one hand, and with the Syrian army on the
other.
However, the element of surprise is the real decision-maker here,
especially after the opposition received new weapons supplies shortly after the
international war against IS started,” Attalah writes.
Source: Al Monitor
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