Why the route cause of IS support in Lebanon is poverty not terrorism
A diplomatic report sent to Beirut recently
touched on the result of a poll published earlier this month by the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which showed that just 1
percent of Lebanon’s Sunni population has a positive opinion of ISIS. Of
the 1,000 Lebanese interviewed for the survey, not a single Christian,
Druze or Shiite respondent was supportive of ISIS.
Still, that
means there are probably “a few thousand” ISIS sympathizers in Lebanon,
according to David Pollock, the director of the Washington Institute’s
Fikra Forum, who designed the survey.
According to the diplomatic
report, Lebanon could capitalize on this widespread rejection
of ISIS through a series of political and developmental steps,
particularly in light of the fact that poverty is a root cause of
violence and terrorism.
Second, the report said frank dialogue was
needed between all Lebanese factions to allay concerns or fears that
any of the groups was resorting to terrorism to shift the balance of
power in Lebanon, as such actions would be destructive for all involved.
Third, the document recommended officials and politicians communicate to the public that ISIS would be highly detrimental to the Sunni community
and would not address its grievances as claimed, something that was
made clear by the fighting in Tripoli over the weekend that led to the
aerial bombardment of the city’s marketplace.
According to the report, the only way to prevent terrorism
from taking hold in Lebanon was by rebuilding state institutions,
ending the five-month presidential vacuum and electing a new Parliament
instead of extending its term for a second time, a move that would erode
the democratic process.
The report warned that delaying the
drafting of a new election law – which would be based on proportional
representation in order to fairly represent all Lebanese groups – could
provide a favorable environment for everything from terrorism and
religious fanaticism to violence and corruption.
In spite of all
these bad signs, however, a centrist politician described Lebanon as
“unstable, but [it] will not totally collapse.”
He said Arab,
regional and international developments had paralyzed state institutions
in Lebanon and that there were still no signs of an imminent
breakthrough on the presidential deadlock, parliamentary elections, or
Cabinet productivity.
To a large extent, the situation
in Lebanon has become connected to external developments and will remain
in limbo until the various regional conflicts are resolved, he added.
In
the meantime, things in Lebanon will remain relatively calm, but there
is unlikely to be any radical solution to the country’s economic, social
and financial problems.
On the security level, the politician
said Western countries were deeply concerned with what was happening in
the north and along the eastern border with Syria.
But he said
that Lebanon was different from other countries in the region due to the
fact that it does not have a particularly favorable environment for
jihadist ideologies, and was being protected by an international
decision to prevent the country from totally exploding.
As the
status-quo in Syria remains unchanged, the politician said, Lebanon
would have to wait for the outcome of the ongoing American-Iranian talks
over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, which are also expected to
tackle the country’s role in the region.
It would also be important to examine how Saudi-Iranian ties would develop, the politician said.
He
revealed that US decsion-makers were deeply divided on the fate of
Syrian President Bashar Assad, with some strongly insisting he stay in
power and others campaigning for him to step down.
According to
the centrist politician, the crisis could be resolved by keeping Assad
in his post but stripping him of most of his powers, which would instead
be distributed to governors, the prime minister, Parliament and the
Syrian Army.
He added that any solution under which a national
unity government was formed in addition to the deployment of
international peacekeeping forces was a proposal worth considering.
Source: albawaba.com
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